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Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW (FUN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 seasonally weak results: net revenues $202.06m, net loss $(219.72)m, Adjusted EBITDA loss $(170.79)m, with first-quarter dynamics amplified by calendar/weather and merger-related timing. Management reiterated that Q1 represents ~5.5% of FY attendance and ~6% of FY revenue this year vs the historical ~7% noted in the release .
  • Mixed vs consensus: revenue missed ($202.06m vs $232.20m*), but EPS beat (−$2.20 vs −$2.46*) primarily due to a large tax benefit; EBITDA missed consensus (company EBITDA $(217.11)m vs $(126.02)m*), reflecting cost timing, weather, and merger integration costs . Values with asterisks are from S&P Global.
  • 2025 outlook maintained: Adjusted EBITDA guidance $1.08–$1.12bn reaffirmed; teams target >3% YoY reduction in operating costs/SG&A (ex-COGS) and plan $475–$500m CapEx in 2025 (similar level in 2026). April-to-date attendance up slightly >1% despite adverse weather; season pass units +6% in the 5 weeks ended May 4 .
  • Catalysts into summer: expanded operating calendars (adding higher-value days in Q2/Q3), strong new ride slate, accelerated synergy capture (on track for $120m by YE and pursuing +$60m more by 2026), and potential asset monetizations (Maryland parks closure post-2025 season + excess land near Richmond) support medium-term margin/FCF narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Maintained FY25 guide with cost discipline and synergy progress: “maintaining our full year Adjusted EBITDA guidance” and targeting operating costs/SG&A to be more than 3% lower vs combined 2024 actuals; on track to deliver $120m cost synergies by YE (6 months early) .
  • Early Q2 indicators positive despite weather: 5 weeks ended May 4 attendance +~1%, in-park per cap $66.34 (above Q1), season pass units +6%; price/mix actions continuing with Cedar Fair parks pass pricing expected +3–4% through the cycle .
  • Strategic portfolio actions and growth levers: closing Maryland parks after 2025 and marketing excess land in Richmond could unlock >$200m gross proceeds to reduce leverage; strong 2025/2026 capital programs (11 of 14 largest properties with new attractions) to drive attendance and in-park spend .

What Went Wrong

  • Top-line shortfall and heavier EBITDA loss: revenue +$100m YoY to $202.06m but below consensus; EBITDA loss of $(217.11)m (company EBITDA) exceeded Street expectations, reflecting weather, event timing (Easter/Boysenberry moved into Q2), and integration/severance/COGS alignment charges .
  • Weather and timing drag: April attendance was negatively impacted by ~175k lost visits due to cold/wet conditions; Knott’s Boysenberry Festival shifted into Q2, moving high per-capita days and compressing Q1 in-park per caps at legacy Cedar Fair parks .
  • Inflation/interest headwinds and higher D&A: net interest expense rose to $87m (+$53m YoY) largely from merger-acquired debt; D&A +$92m YoY on fair-value step-up and methodology change; COGS % higher due to nonrecurring inventory alignment charge .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Revenues ($m)$1,350.0 $687.3 $202.1
Operating (Income)/Loss ($m)—$51.1 $(321.0)
Net (Loss)/Income ($m)—$(264.2) $(219.7)
EBITDA ($m)—$130.6 $(217.1)
Adjusted EBITDA ($m)$558.0 $209.0 $(170.8)
Attendance (m)—10.694 2.818
In-Park Per Capita ($)—$61.60 $65.40
Out-of-Park Revenues ($m)—$47.8 $23.9

Notes: Dashes indicate not disclosed in the documents scanned for that period.

Consensus vs Actual (Q1 2025)

  • Revenue: $232.20m* (consensus) vs $202.06m (actual)
  • EPS (diluted): −$2.46* (consensus) vs −$2.20 (actual)
  • EBITDA: −$126.02m* (consensus) vs −$217.11m (company EBITDA) Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs (Q1 2025 and April update)

  • Attendance: 2.818m (Q1); 2.8m (five weeks to May 4, +~1% YoY)
  • In-park per capita: $65.40 (Q1); $66.34 (five weeks to May 4)
  • Out-of-park revenues: $23.9m (Q1)
  • Operating days: 393 (Q1)
  • Deferred revenues: $374m at Mar 30, 2025 (incl. $152m legacy Six Flags)
  • Liquidity: $241m; Net debt ~$5.21bn

Non-GAAP/one-off items (Q1)

  • Integration/merger costs $15.6m; other add-backs include severance, Mexican VAT, contract termination, and an inventory alignment charge impacting COGS %; EBITDA recon provided .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$1.08–$1.12bn (Feb 27 PR) Maintained Maintained
Operating costs & SG&A (ex-COGS)FY 2025~$70m synergy targeted in 2025 (part of $120m by YE 2025) “>3% lower” vs combined 2024 actuals; on track to $120m run-rate by YE; targeting +$60m incremental savings by 2026 Strengthened cost focus
CapExFY 2025$475–$500m Reiterated $475–$500m; similar level in 2026 Maintained
Debt/capital2025–202770% fixed-rate; no major maturities before 2027 except $200m in July 2025 Reiterated; evaluating options for July notes Maintained
Portfolio optimization2025–2026Review ongoing (Nov) Announced plan to close Maryland parks post-2025 season; evaluating excess land sales; potential proceeds “north of a couple hundred million dollars” New disclosure detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Cost synergiesTarget $120m run-rate by YE 2025; $50m realized in 2024 On track to achieve $120m by YE (6 months early); >3% OpEx/SG&A reduction; +$60m incremental by 2026 Accelerating, upside added
Operating calendarShift days into Q2/Q3; reduce low-value Q1/Q4 days Q2 adding ~36 operating days; more higher-value days in May/June Executing shift
Weather/timingHurricanes depressed Q3; October record attendance ~175k April visits lost to weather; Easter/Boysenberry shift into Q2 Persistent headwind early, normalizing
Season pass strategyHarmonize programs; early sales +2% units (Q4 commentary) April pass units +6%; Cedar Fair pricing +3–4%; Six Flags pass price flat on mix; multiple sales “bites” ahead Improving momentum
Portfolio actionsExploring asset monetization (excess land) Maryland parks to close after 2025; Richmond land marketed; >$200m potential proceeds Concrete actions
Technology/analyticsUnifying dynamic pricing; BI-driven KPIs Ticketing integration by YE; dashboards rolling out; early innings of tech stack integration Progressing
Tariffs/macroFX headwinds; macro watch Tariff exposure “relatively limited”; mitigation via sourcing/pricing Monitored, limited impact
CapEx/new productBig 2025/26 programs across top parks Reiterated; flexibility to trim CapEx ~30% discretionary bucket if needed Steady; flexible

Management Commentary

  • CEO on quarter context and integration: “While our start to 2025 was largely shaped by calendar timing shifts, weather variability, and near-term economic uncertainty… We remain focused on… integrating the combined company, optimizing our cost structure, driving demand by enhancing the guest experience…” .
  • CFO on Q1 non-indicative nature: “First quarter performance tracks closer to ~5.5% of full year attendance and ~6% of full year revenues… fewer operating days and the shift of Boysenberry Festival were the biggest drivers of Q1 declines” .
  • Cost actions: “We now expect current year operating cost and expenses to be more than 3% lower than combined 2024 actuals… once this initiative is completed, we will have reduced our full-time headcount by more than 10%” .
  • April update: “Attendance… up a little more than 1%… In-park per capita… $66.34… Season pass… unit sales up 6%” .
  • Portfolio moves: “Plans to close our Maryland parks after the 2025 season… expected to be cash flow accretive… reduce leverage and modestly improve EBITDA margin” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Attendance/operating days: Q2 adds ~36 operating days; focus on higher-margin days to lift attendance beyond the ~2% implied by Q1 mix; Boysenberry effects to be fully lapped by mid-May .
  • Guidance conviction: Despite softer April weather, long-lead indicators (passes, groups, resorts) and cost actions underpin guidance; e-commerce units +1% YTD with mid-single-digit price increase .
  • Cost structure: 2025 operating costs/SG&A (ex-COGS) “down >3%” inclusive of inflation; severance/integration excluded from that target .
  • Asset monetization: Land proceeds for DC-area property and Richmond could exceed “a couple hundred million dollars”; timeline 12–18 months .
  • Pricing discipline: Dynamic pricing with a “floor”; not leaning into discounting; seek “comfortably crowded” parks to extend length of stay and upsell .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue missed consensus: $202.06m vs $232.20m*, reflecting weather and event timing shifts (Easter and Knott’s Boysenberry into Q2) that deferred higher per-capita days .
  • EPS beat: −$2.20 vs −$2.46*, aided by a larger tax benefit ($186.8m) tied to merger-related windup and other discrete items; operationally, the quarter was loss-making as usual for Q1 .
  • EBITDA miss: company EBITDA $(217.11)m vs $(126.02)m*, reflecting cost timing (preopening maintenance, advertising), weather, and nonrecurring COGS alignment charge . Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Narrative intact into peak season: Maintaining $1.08–$1.12bn FY25 Adjusted EBITDA with improving April KPIs supports a second/third-quarter-driven setup; operating-day mix shift should help attendance conversion .
  • Cost-down and synergy execution are near-term offsets: >3% OpEx/SG&A reduction (ex-COGS) and $120m synergy run-rate by YE create downside protection; additional $60m identified for 2026 boosts margin trajectory .
  • Capital and portfolio optionality: $475–$500m 2025 CapEx (similar 2026) concentrated in marquee parks; asset monetizations (> $200m potential) and flexible ~30% discretionary CapEx bucket provide deleveraging and cash preservation levers .
  • Short-term trading implications: Expect near-term volatility tied to weather headlines and monthly attendance updates; positive catalysts include June/July pass momentum, successful openings of new rides, and any asset-sale progress .
  • Medium-term thesis: Attendance normalization at legacy Six Flags parks, per-capita uplift via food & beverage and premium experiences, disciplined pricing, and tech/ticketing integration underpin multi-year margin/FCF expansion .

Appendix: Additional Details

  • Other press releases (Q2 window): Only item found was an administrative tax form notice (“2024 Schedule K-3… Now Available”), not operationally material .
  • April five-week detail: Net revenues ~$192m; legacy Six Flags $97m, legacy Cedar Fair $95m; attendance 2.8m; in-park per cap $66.34 .

Sourcing/Citations:

  • Q1 2025 8-K and press release:
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcripts:
  • Q4 2024 8-K and PR:
  • Q4 2024 call:
  • Q3 2024 call:

Estimates disclaimer: Asterisked values are retrieved from S&P Global.